Bay Area November Real Estate Market Update
December 22, 2025
A Tale of Two cities
Let’s talk about Bay Area real estate! The data below has been cleaned, indexed, and compiled to analyze the market. The goal is to provide accurate and up to date (bi-weekly) information and help you make the best-informed decision should you choose to buy or sell real estate in the Bay Area. Or at the least, make you sound smart at cocktail parties. If you want to get into the weeds, go hyper local (the data can be broken down by city) and dive into more statistics, I have plenty more to share with you.
Below is an overview of the Marin and San Francisco County real estate markets. All the data below combines condominium and single-family figures. If you want to see condominium or individual city trends, give me a call.
Marin County Highlights
Ok, so rush hour traffic is back. If you need to get to San Rafael from Sausalito after 3:00 PM, you better give yourself an extra 30-to-45-minute cushion. And when did they change the carpool lane hours going northbound on 101? I almost got pinched on my way to yoga one morning at 6:45 AM! Interestingly, the number of unique FasTrak accounts in use increased 5% as of November 2025.
· YTD Sales +7.7% from same time 2024
· YTD Transaction Count +5.2% from same time 2024
· Inventory +25% compared to the same time in 2024
· Monthly absorption rates (% of inventory that went into contract that month, or homes for sale divided by homes pending) in 2025 were lower every month except October compared to 2024
| Marin County Residential Sales Data 2025 vs 2024 | |||||||||||||||
| $ Sales | Transaction Count | Inventory | Absorption Rate | ||||||||||||
| Change | 2025 | 2024 | Change | 2025 | 2024 | Change | 2025 | 2024 | Change | 2025 | 2024 | ||||
| Jan | -1.7% | $ 155,075,461 | $ 157,824,990 | Jan | -2.0% | 96 | 98 | Jan | 23.9% | 249 | 201 | Jan | -6.3% | 46.2 | 49.3 |
| Feb | 24.0% | $ 221,050,450 | $ 178,250,348 | Feb | 17.0% | 124 | 106 | Feb | 37.5% | 341 | 248 | Feb | -11.8% | 43.4 | 49.2 |
| Mar | 26.2% | $ 393,168,580 | $ 311,596,003 | Mar | 23.3% | 196 | 159 | Mar | 31.2% | 395 | 301 | Mar | -13.4% | 63.3 | 73.1 |
| Apr | 21.6% | $ 510,932,868 | $ 420,209,994 | Apr | 15.0% | 253 | 220 | Apr | 38.8% | 562 | 405 | Apr | -20.7% | 45.2 | 57.0 |
| May | 4.1% | $ 583,656,512 | $ 560,851,681 | May | -4.0% | 264 | 275 | May | 32.8% | 639 | 481 | May | -26.1% | 42.7 | 57.8 |
| Jun | -4.1% | $ 64,413,893 | $ 484,096,636 | Jun | 0.0% | 243 | 243 | Jun | 38.0% | 596 | 432 | Jun | -32.7% | 38.3 | 56.9 |
| Jul | 0.6% | $ 412,216,639 | $ 409,887,300 | Jul | -11.0% | 210 | 236 | Jul | 33.4% | 503 | 377 | Jul | -25.9% | 33.8 | 45.6 |
| Aug | 11.4% | $ 304,987,810 | $ 273,783,614 | Aug | 0.6% | 170 | 169 | Aug | 23.7% | 486 | 393 | Aug | -13.2% | 42.2 | 48.6 |
| Sep | 26.4% | $ 413,444,881 | $ 327,073,835 | Sep | 22.3% | 214 | 175 | Sep | 15.4% | 585 | 507 | Sep | -9.6% | 40.7 | 45.0 |
| Oct | -4.3% | $ 467,234,699 | $ 488,410,670 | Oct | 1.2% | 252 | 249 | Oct | 7.4% | 520 | 484 | Oct | 13.8% | 47.9 | 42.1 |
| Nov | -2.5% | $ 327,926,652 | $ 336,288,294 | Nov | 9.3% | 199 | 182 | Nov | 10.1% | 394 | 358 | Nov | -18.8% | 40.6 | 50.0 |
| Dec | Dec | Dec | Dec | ||||||||||||
| YTD | 7.7% | $ 4,254,108,445 | $ 3,948,273,365 | YTD | 5.2% | 2221 | 2112 | YTD | 26% | 5270 | 4187 | ||||
Notes
The volatility in interest rates caused by the tariffs slowed down the growth in the market. The 10-year bond had a range of 4.01% to 4.58%, a 14% range. The inventory was there, but buyer activity slowed significantly. Notice the shift lower in the absorption rate from March to June. Transactions from May to August were lower to flat compared to 2024. Buyer activity continued to be erratic for the remainder of the year, cancelling contracts at an alarming rate and negotiating concessions more aggressively.
Activity did pick up in the fall once 30-year mortgage rates got back below 6.5%. The good news is that there is inventory coming to market, and we are finally seeing levels moving closer to historical averages. The market continues to improve, evolve and normalize after bottoming out in 2023. However, homes in Marin are staying on the market longer on average and are trading below their originally offered price. A lot of sellers are still trying to get COVID bubble prices for their homes, especially in the higher end market. More modern, updated homes in desirable neighborhoods priced closer to market value drew in competitive buyers, multiple offers, and quick action.
San Francisco Highlights
I will just start out by saying Holy $#&@! A commercial real estate broker I spoke to back in March said the San Francisco commercial market was starting to take off and that a new 10-year cycle was under way. The AI boom is real; workers are coming back to the office and people are moving back into the city.
· YTD Sales +10.7% from same time 2024
· YTD Transaction Count +8.4% from same time 2024
· Inventory -10.5% compared to the same time in 2024
· Absorption Rates were higher eight out of 10 months compared to 2024, and in October it was 65%, the highest since 2013!!!
| San Francisco Residential Sales Data 2025 vs 2024 | |||||||||||||||
| $ Sales | Transaction Count | Inventory | Absorption Rate | ||||||||||||
| Change | 2025 | 2024 | Change | 2025 | 2024 | Change | 2025 | 2024 | Change | 2025 | 2024 | ||||
| Jan | 14.6% | $433,325,877 | $378,279,745 | Jan | 22.5% | 261 | 213 | Jan | 3.5% | 745 | 720 | Jan | 13.7% | 42.3 | 37.2 |
| Feb | -1.5% | $526,574,885 | $534,735,735 | Feb | 1.8% | 334 | 328 | Feb | -1.0% | 866 | 875 | Feb | 0.7% | 44.3 | 44.0 |
| Mar | 27.1% | $815,553,161 | $641,776,982 | Mar | 21.0% | 443 | 366 | Mar | 6.0% | 1005 | 948 | Mar | -9.5% | 44.9 | 49.6 |
| Apr | -0.5% | $856,381,829 | $ 860,601,885 | Apr | -6.8% | 455 | 488 | Apr | 2.7% | 1105 | 1076 | Apr | -0.9% | 42.4 | 42.8 |
| May | 2.6% | $897,559,878 | $874,973,666 | May | -6.0% | 467 | 497 | May | 3.1% | 1166 | 1131 | May | 9.3% | 44.6 | 40.8 |
| Jun | 17.3% | $787,861,255 | $671,906,645 | Jun | 20.8% | 464 | 384 | Jun | -3.6% | 1043 | 1082 | Jun | 7.8% | 40.1 | 37.2 |
| Jul | -0.3% | $ 700,436,828 | $ 702,695,701 | Jul | -0.7% | 423 | 426 | Jul | -10.8% | 858 | 962 | Jul | 11.3% | 43.5 | 39.1 |
| Aug | -6.7% | $557,718,324 | $597,458,569 | Aug | -1.6% | 359 | 365 | Aug | -15.0% | 761 | 895 | Aug | 30.4% | 49.7 | 38.1 |
| Sep | 44.7% | $721,011,763 | $498,312,527 | Sep | 38.9% | 425 | 306 | Sep | -25.7% | 966 | 1301 | Sep | 93.0% | 57.5 | 29.8 |
| Oct | 23.7% | $ 1,096,471,983 | $886,642,313 | Oct | 25.5% | 585 | 466 | Oct | -30.7% | 846 | 1221 | Oct | 59.3% | 65.0 | 40.8 |
| Nov | 5.8% | $757,260,592 | $715,715,797 | Nov | -4.7% | 409 | 429 | Nov | -33.3% | 663 | 994 | Nov | 68.9% | 59.1 | 35.0 |
| Dec | Dec | Dec | Dec | ||||||||||||
| YTD | 10.7% | $8,150,156,375 | $7,363,099,565 | YTD | 8.4% | 4625 | 4268 | YTD | -10.5% | 10,024 | 11,205 | ||||
Notes
I have statistics on the San Francisco condominium market as well, and there are interesting insights in the numbers when you look at them….
Look at October Sales of $1,096,471,983 with 585 Transactions! If you exclude the COVID buying frenzy of 2021 and 2022, October 2025 sales are the highest on record. October 2020 had $931 Million in sales with 585 transactions, and only October of 2018 was higher with $942 Million in sales.
We still saw the same slowdown that occurred in Marin after the tariffs, but a strong June set up for a knockout September and October. In San Francisco, the 15-year average for September transactions is 419, and we saw 425 this year. For October, the 15-year average is 540, and we had 585 in 2025. So, we are seeing healthy buying activity.
Like Ron Popeil would say, “But wait, there’s more!”
Or wait, maybe less. And by that I am talking about inventory. Although inventory was higher in 2025 than in 2024, we are still way below pre-COVID levels. This buying spree sucked up all the inventory in the last half of the year, and sellers were getting insane prices. One client of mine lost out on a home initially offered at $1.8 Million that traded at $2.4 Million, and it still needed some work done! The single-family home in San Francisco is in demand. We all know what increased demand plus short supply equals….
Coda
So, what’s on the horizon? Pending sales are pointing to a strong December for San Francisco, but a more subdued end of the year for Marin County. I am not making any predictions. The data already shows increases in sales, transactions, and inventory year over year.
A few key things to keep an eye on for 2026 are:
· Mortgage rates: The 30-year mortgage average is 6.21% as of 12/18/2025. The closer rates stay to 6% the better. Keep an eye on the 10-year bond (4.21% as of 12/18/2025).
· Affordability: Inflation persists. Wages are increasing faster than housing prices for the first time in 5 years. Let’s see if this trend continues.
· Inventory: We are still at low levels on inventory compared to historical and pre-COVID levels.
· Mobility: Workers are going back to the office, and the Bay Area is seeing the influx.
· San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie is doing an excellent job of cleaning up the city. Let’s see if this draws in more people and greater demand for housing. Also, San Francisco is a pretty badass city in and of itself!
· Unemployment: Although the Bay Area is a bit of an outlier compared to the rest of the US, a steady rise in unemployment could hinder people relocating here.
In my next note I will break down the Marin and San Francisco Markets into different market segments. It will detail how the higher priced homes outperform the lower price ones. If we see rates dip below 6%, a flurry of activity is likely in both markets.
Want a personalized market analysis for your neighborhood?
Contact me today for a detailed breakdown of your specific Marin County or San Francisco market. I provide complimentary home valuations and buyer consultations.
Call: (415) 599-9209
Email: [email protected]
I wish the Happiest of Holidays to you, your family and loved ones.
Gratefully,
Gene J Koziarz
“Without data, you're just another person with an opinion”
— W. Edwards Deming
Gene J. Koziarz Real Estate Agent DRE# 02247872 Compass [email protected]