August 2026 Market Commentary

I hope you had a wonderful holiday weekend! I have been enjoying the weather here in the Bay Area and even sneaked away to Tahoe for a few days to play some golf in the mountains.

This morning Freddie Mac reported the 30-year mortgage average at 6.76%, 0.10% higher than 8/31/26 and 0.20% higher than 8/31/25. This is driven by 10- and 30-year treasury yields being 0.52% and 0.33% higher than a year ago, respectively. The MBA Mortgage Purchase index is slightly lower than last year, showing prospective buyer activity is steady. Tomorrow we will get an update on the inflation rate with the August CPI report. I'll bet you a dollar to a doughnut it will show that inflation is still rising.

The San Francisco Market

The market for single-family homes cooled off slightly in August but the condo market remained strong, with a 5% increase in transactions compared to August 2025. Inventory is still 30% below last year and the median price for a single-family home is 24% higher. Condos are trading 20% higher than last year in SF.

The SF market has been hyped up in the news a lot lately, and for good reason. The influx of capital (from non-AI IPOs too), people moving to the city from all over the world, and the shortage of inventory have created a buying frenzy. The data shows single-family homes experiencing the highest overbidding, 31% over list price, are in the middle of the city, have 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and ~1750 square feet. The luxury market is seeing average sales 15% above list price.

Below is a full breakdown of the SF market segmented into quintiles — Q1 being the lowest-priced 20% of sales, Q5 the highest-priced 20%. The top 20% of the single-family home market (Q5) has seen the greatest increase in median price since 2020, +47.5%, including a 28.6% jump in 2026 YTD alone! This is almost double the median price increase of the entire market. Luxury condos, $2.5MM+, have increased 35% in price since 2020, whereas condos under $1MM have decreased in price.

San Francisco — SFR, All 5 Quintiles

San Francisco — Condo, All 5 Quintiles

The Marin County Market

The Marin market remains strong. Dollar sales and transactions are experiencing double-digit growth for both single-family homes and condos. The lack of inventory is pushing prices higher with increased demand from last year in the single-family home market, but not in the condo market. In Marin the condo market is going in the opposite direction of that in SF — only the top 20% of the condo market has seen an appreciation greater than 10% in 2026. Keep in mind that in SF condos are 56% of the entire market, whereas in Marin, they represent 22%.

Median Price & $/SqFt — 2026 YTD (Jan–Aug)

I wouldn't quite use the word arbitrage, but if you own a home in SF and have been thinking about moving to Marin, now would be a good time to capitalize on the equity in SF. There is value to be found in Marin compared to current prices in SF. If you cannot find what you are looking for in your price range in SF, give me a call to discuss the opportunities in Marin. Median $ per sqft. in Marin is $900, compared to $1,115 per sqft. for a condo in SF.

For Buyers

• Have your goals and timing clearly defined.
• Identify your must-haves and deal killers.
• Define your price point and know financing options available to you.
• Map out a plan and understand your position in the market.
• Study the neighborhoods you want to live in. Visit them often.
• Know where the market is.
• If you are experiencing buyer fatigue, take the time to debrief and understand how you lost out on the last offer you wrote.

For Sellers

• This is your market right now.
• Don't try to time the market. Let the market work for you.
• Have a plan tailored to achieve your goals.
• Understand who the likely buyer for your home is.
• Know your position and competition in the market.

I am available at your convenience for a conversation. Together we will go over data specific to the neighborhoods you are interested in. I will help you be the most informed and best-prepared buyer or seller. The right time to buy or sell is when you are ready.

If you are serious about buying or selling, interview me for the job. You will be happy you did!

Gratefully,

Gene

Gene J Koziarz
DRE#02247872 | Vanguard Properties
415-599-9209
[email protected]
www.genekoziarz.com