2/11/2026

How’s the Market?

Interest rate and mortgage markets are in a state of calm at the moment. I am guessing this is because the Federal Reserve isn’t expected to change the Target Fed Funds Rate until June. The CME FedWatch Tool is a great source for the market’s expectations of future Fed policy. Interest rate traders think there is a 40% chance the Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate in April, and a 75% chance in June. What this will mean for the economy, inflation and the 10-Year Treasury yield is anyone's guess. Presently interest rate volatility is low, and that is good for home buyers and the market in general. Only derivative traders like volatility. Just ask Michael Saylor.

• The 30 Year Mortgage Average at the end of January was 6.10%... holding steady

• The mortgage spread is 5.6% lower YTD and 23% lower than a year ago

• The 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate is 5% higher YTD, but still lower than a year ago

• The Mortgage Purchase Application Index is up 14% YTD and 19% higher than last year

San Francisco and Marin County Real Estate Stats

In Marin County the real estate market is growing slowly and steadily, as it has for the past three years. After the stellar 4th quarter in the San Francisco market, with over $1 Billion in Sales in October, 2026 is starting off slower than last year. In both markets inventory levels are still below historical averages. 

Marin County Market by the Numbers

• Jan 2026 sales up 8.7% compared to January 2025, and transactions up 3%

• Jan inventory increased for the third year in a row, but still 48% less than the 15 year average

• Median sold price for Jan was 14% higher than last year

• Homes are changing hands at 93.5% of their original list price

In our sales meetings, agents are reporting robust open house activity and a lot of new listings on deck for the early spring market. The limited inventory that is coming to market is getting snapped up quickly.

San Francisco Market by the Numbers

• Jan sales were 23% lower than Jan 2025 and transactions were 24% lower

• Inventory in Jan was 29% lower than Jan 2025

• Median sold price in San Francisco increased 1% compared to Jan 2025

• Active inventory is being absorbed faster than last year and at 104.5% or original list price

These stats for the SF market would make you think a slowdown is coming. But to put this in context, the last 4 months of 2025 saw a 24% increase in $ sales and a 20% increase in transactions compared to the same period in 2024. Inventory got swallowed up faster than free beer at a frat party.  It will take a little time for the supply to get replenished, hopefully in time for the spring market.

I think inventory will continue to be the key word for Bay area real estate in 2026.  Sellers that bring a quality, thoughtfully prepared home to market should be well rewarded. But pricing is key here, as shown by the Sales to List Price Ratio at 93.5% for Marin County. With inventory still at historically low levels, buyers will find themselves in competitive situations in SF and Marin markets.

I study the market every day to be competitive and give my clients every possible edge in achieving their goals, whether buying or selling. Planning and strategy are paramount. If you are thinking about buying or selling this year, the sooner you start crafting your strategy the better. I am at your service and will help you make a plan.

If you are thinking about buying or selling, interview me.  You will be happy you did!

"Buy land, they aren't making it anymore."

-Mark Twain

Gratefully,

Gene

Gene J Koziarz

Real Estate Agent

Compass DRE# 02247872

m: 415.599.9209

[email protected]

www.genekoziarz.com