San Francisco and Marin County Real Estate and Interest Rate Market Statistics and Notable Sales
3/19/2026
I am keeping a close eye on the mortgage market and real estate market dynamics.
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee left rates unchanged yesterday. Per Chairman Powell:
“Employment is stable and prices and the jobless rate is little changed and inflation is somewhat elevated…. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain…. Available indicators suggest economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. Consumer spending resilient and fixed investment continues to expand. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak… The data indicates that the total PCE prices rose 2.8% over February and excluding the volatile food and energy, core prices rose 3.3%.”
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now only a 40% chance the Fed will lower rates by October. Is inflation such a drag on the consumer that it is affecting potential homebuyers? How much has the price of gas gone up at your local station?
Macro Interest Rate Numbers
· The 30 Year Mortgage Average ticked up to 6.11% but is still 8% lower than last year
· The Mortgage Spread is lower for the year at 1.84%
· Mortgage Purchase Applications are 11% higher than last year
· The TIPS Spread is 3% higher year over year, (rising inflation expectations)
· The MOVE Index is 42.5 % higher YTD, but 10% lower than last year (PHEW!!!)
So far, conditions are still better than where we were last year for the real estate market, and buyers are more active.
Real Estate Market Dynamics
Nationally, housing inventory for sale is increasing. My friend FRED in St. Louis (The Federal Reserve Bank in St. Louis) shows a 7.9% increase year over year. That is not the case for the Bay Area. As of 3/14/26, inventory in San Francisco is 36% lower, and in Marin County 11% lower year over year. But in Marin sales are up 7% and pending sales are up 5%. In San Francisco Sales are 12% lower, but pending sales are up 1%. It is still early in the season, so it will be interesting how the rest of the month plays out. Low supply and increasing demand will drive prices to the upside.
Notable Sales
San Francisco
2101 Divisadero St, San Francisco: Listed 1/16/26 $5,995,000. Sold 2/9/26 $8,000,000.
2030 Ortega St, San Francisco: Listed 1/12/26 $1,325,000. Sold 2/11/26 $1,860,000.
133 Vicksburg St, San Francisco: Listed 1/29/26 $2,695,000. Sold 2/13/26 $3,750,000.
See a pattern? There was one single family home in SF that got 54 offers! The SF market is bucking the national trend, and inventory at its lowest levels in 15 years.
Marin County
18 Stanton Way, Mill Valley: Listed 1/30/2026 $2,595,000. Sold 2/12/2026 $3,670,517.
(This was a major mispricing because the square footage was not properly accounted for.)
9 W Shore Rd, Belvedere: Sold Off Market $14,900,000. (Seriously ridiculous place!)
50 Cable Roadway, Sausalito: Listed 2/6/26 $4,850,000. Sold 2/26/26 $4,850,000.
(Beautiful home with insane views).
Inventory in Marin is low, but at least higher than in 2023 and 2024. Open houses are reportedly busy, and there are a lot of buyers out there, but they are selective. In speaking to home inspectors and staging companies, there is a lot of inventory on deck and getting prepared to come to market.
Market conditions can change quickly, and demand does change faster than supply. I am optimistic about a busy spring/summer market. Sellers of well-maintained homes have the edge at the moment.
For buyers, it is imperative to have a plan of action. If you see that home you must have, you will need to be prepared to act aggressively. And if you are going to finance, make sure you are fully underwritten and preapproved, not just preapproved.
Give me a call to discuss.
Gratefully,
Gene
“If you don't know where you are going, you'll end up someplace else.”
― Yogi Berra
Gene J Koziarz
Real Estate Agent & Advisor
Vanguard Properties DRE 02247872
M: 415.599.9209
genekoziarz.com