Interest rates / Mortgage rates / Mortgage spread
- 10-Year Treasury: 5.09%, up 1.10% YoY
- 30-Year Mortgage: 7.40%, up 1.13% YoY
- Mortgage Spread: 2.31%, up 0.03% YoY
Given all the noise and volatility, I see these data as slightly positive for the housing market as mortgage investors are still showing confidence in mortgage buyers and the economy. Going back to January 2024, the median value for the spread is 2.31%, so we are right at the median, with the range being 1.69 to 2.95. It could be a lot worse!!!
It’s a volatile interest rate market. The MOVE Index is at 102, which translates to an expected move of 0.06 per day in the 10-year bond. To put this into perspective, the interest rate options market is saying that in 10 days, there is a greater than 2/3 chance the 10-year bond could be between 4.89% and 5.29%.
10-year inflation expectations are only slightly higher year over year at 2.35%. I see that as positive for the bond market and that buyers should see some relief in lower interest rates soon.
The mortgage purchase applications index for the week ending October 14 came in 18.3% lower than last year. No surprise here. Nationally, median home sale prices are up 1.3% YoY while the number of homes sold is down 4.3%. Source: Redfin
Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
Jan | +11.9% | $172.8M | $154.4M | +7.3% | 103 | 96 |
Feb | +38.7% | $305.9M | $220.6M | +34.7% | 167 | 124 |
Mar | -8.3% | $360.4M | $392.8M | -4.1% | 188 | 196 |
Apr | +30.9% | $667.6M | $509.9M | +15.0% | 291 | 253 |
May | +18.5% | $690.9M | $582.9M | +11.0% | 293 | 264 |
Jun | +39.8% | $647.6M | $463.3M | +26.3% | 307 | 243 |
Jul | +28.7% | $528.8M | $410.9M | +24.3% | 261 | 210 |
Aug | +51.4% | $461.0M | $304.5M | +28.2% | 218 | 170 |
Sep | +20.1% | $495.9M | $413.0M | +15.0% | 246 | 214 |
YTD | +25.5% | $4330.9M | $3452.3M | +17.2% | 2,074 | 1,770 |
Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
Jan | -22.2% | $337.0M | $433.3M | -22.6% | 202 | 261 |
Feb | +25.9% | $662.8M | $526.6M | +1.5% | 339 | 334 |
Mar | +23.8% | $1009.3M | $815.6M | +5.2% | 466 | 443 |
Apr | +40.8% | $1205.4M | $856.4M | +17.4% | 534 | 455 |
May | +35.9% | $1219.7M | $897.6M | +17.6% | 549 | 467 |
Jun | +59.6% | $1257.5M | $788.0M | +27.3% | 592 | 465 |
Jul | +24.6% | $872.7M | $700.4M | +10.9% | 469 | 423 |
Aug | +23.6% | $689.2M | $557.7M | +6.7% | 383 | 359 |
Sep | +25.4% | $904.1M | $721.0M | +0.5% | 427 | 425 |
YTD | +29.6% | $8157.7M | $6296.5M | +9.1% | 3,961 | 3,632 |
| Indicator | 10/16/26 | 9/30/26 | 12/31/25 | 10/16/25 | MTD Chg | YTD Chg | YoY Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Yr Fixed Rate Mtg | 7.40% | 7.03% | 6.15% | 6.27% | +0.37% | +1.25% | +1.13% |
| 15-Yr Fixed Rate Mtg | 6.71% | 6.42% | 5.44% | 5.52% | +0.29% | +1.27% | +1.19% |
| 10-Yr Treasury | 5.09% | 5.29% | 4.18% | 3.99% | -0.20% | +0.91% | +1.10% |
| 30-Yr Treasury | 5.43% | 5.64% | 4.84% | 4.58% | -0.21% | +0.59% | +0.85% |
| 10-Yr Breakeven Inflation | 2.35% | 2.36% | 2.25% | 2.28% | -0.01% | +0.10% | +0.07% |
| 10-Yr Real Yield (TIPS) | 2.74% | 2.93% | 1.93% | 1.71% | -0.19% | +0.81% | +1.03% |
| MOVE Index | 102.49 | 110.45 | 63.96 | 81.23 | -7.96% | +38.53% | +21.26% |
| Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac PMMS | Treasuries & TIPS: FRED | MOVE: ICE BofA | |||||||
| Week Ending | Index | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | 139.3 | -18.3% |
| 2026-10-07 | 145.1 | -16.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | 148.2 | -15.1% |
| 2026-09-23 | 154.9 | -11.0% |
| 2026-09-16 | 156.2 | -7.6% |
| 2026-09-09 | 157.5 | -0.8% |
| 2026-09-02 | 157.8 | -3.7% |
| Source: Mortgage Bankers Association | ||
Jan 1 – Sep 30 | 2026 YTD | 2025 YTD | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
Total sales volume | $4.33B | $3.45B | +25.5% |
Total transactions | 2,074 | 1,770 | +17.2% |
Median price, single family | $1,800,000 | $1,722,500 | +4.5% |
Median price, condo | $752,500 | $801,250 | −6.1% |
Median $/sqft, single family | $897 | $863 | +4.0% |
Median $/sqft, condo | $579 | $618 | −6.4% |
Jan 1 – Sep 30 | 2026 YTD | 2025 YTD | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
Total sales volume | $8.16B | $6.30B | +29.6% |
Total transactions | 3,961 | 3,632 | +9.1% |
Median price, single family | $2,050,000 | $1,700,000 | +20.6% |
Median price, condo | $1,275,000 | $1,120,000 | +13.8% |
Median $/sqft, single family | $1,169 | $1,012 | +15.4% |
Median $/sqft, condo | $1,110 | $986 | +12.6% |
Median single-family home prices are 4.5% higher than last year, and inventory levels are 24% lower than last year. The modern homes with views in the top 20% of the market are driving the market higher. The median price of the top 20% of the market is 15% higher than last year. This is the market segment where we are still seeing multiple buyers competing. Homes at the $2MM price level have yet to surpass the highs seen during Covid. Condo purchases have picked up in 2026. As I have been saying, it is still a buyers’ market for condos in Marin.
Mo | For Sale | Pending | Pending Days Inv | Avg DOM | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | |
Jan | +13.1% | 164 | 145 | 106 | -6.7% | 84 | 90 | 72 | +21.2% | 59 | 48 | 44 | -17.6% | 61 | 74 | 64 |
Feb | -14.3% | 180 | 210 | 137 | +20.7% | 134 | 111 | 86 | -29.0% | 40 | 57 | 48 | +2.2% | 47 | 46 | 50 |
Mar | +0.0% | 265 | 265 | 193 | +8.2% | 212 | 196 | 153 | -7.5% | 38 | 41 | 38 | -9.4% | 29 | 32 | 27 |
Apr | -24.4% | 307 | 406 | 273 | +12.6% | 241 | 214 | 184 | -32.9% | 38 | 57 | 45 | -3.8% | 25 | 26 | 21 |
May | -29.0% | 330 | 465 | 343 | +10.6% | 239 | 216 | 206 | -35.9% | 41 | 65 | 50 | +20.8% | 29 | 24 | 27 |
Jun | -36.5% | 280 | 441 | 303 | +21.1% | 218 | 180 | 195 | -47.6% | 39 | 74 | 47 | -9.4% | 29 | 32 | 31 |
Jul | -35.1% | 233 | 359 | 256 | +16.2% | 151 | 130 | 133 | -44.1% | 46 | 83 | 58 | -11.9% | 37 | 42 | 36 |
Aug | -15.8% | 293 | 348 | 253 | +3.0% | 170 | 165 | 159 | -18.3% | 52 | 63 | 48 | -22.2% | 35 | 45 | 37 |
Sep | -30.9% | 298 | 431 | 352 | +11.9% | 207 | 185 | 180 | -38.2% | 43 | 70 | 59 | -22.5% | 31 | 40 | 33 |
Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | Median Price | Avg $/Sqft | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
Jan | +15.8% | $150.2M | $129.7M | +10.1% | 76 | 69 | +17.2% | $1,700K | $1,450K | +7.7% | $869 | $807 |
Feb | +41.1% | $274.6M | $194.6M | +29.5% | 123 | 95 | -3.0% | $1,649K | $1,700K | +1.3% | $937 | $925 |
Mar | -8.4% | $325.3M | $355.3M | -9.6% | 142 | 157 | -1.0% | $1,762K | $1,780K | +3.8% | $991 | $955 |
Apr | +33.6% | $616.9M | $461.9M | +17.8% | 232 | 197 | +5.5% | $1,925K | $1,825K | +8.4% | $1,073 | $990 |
May | +18.1% | $644.4M | $545.7M | +9.1% | 240 | 220 | -2.2% | $1,908K | $1,952K | +3.2% | $1,051 | $1,018 |
Jun | +42.6% | $598.3M | $419.4M | +27.2% | 248 | 195 | +7.7% | $1,810K | $1,680K | +9.3% | $1,060 | $970 |
Jul | +24.9% | $480.2M | $384.6M | +18.7% | 203 | 171 | +4.5% | $1,750K | $1,675K | +4.6% | $1,020 | $975 |
Aug | +51.9% | $410.8M | $270.5M | +24.4% | 163 | 131 | +14.7% | $1,760K | $1,535K | +14.3% | $1,007 | $881 |
Sep | +19.8% | $451.1M | $376.7M | +13.3% | 196 | 173 | +1.8% | $1,725K | $1,695K | +11.0% | $1,020 | $919 |
YTD | +25.9% | $3951.8M | $3138.4M | +15.3% | 1,623 | 1,408 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Mo | For Sale | Pending | Pending Days Inv | Avg DOM | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | |
Jan | -14.7% | 64 | 75 | 72 | +52.9% | 26 | 17 | 20 | -44.2% | 74 | 132 | 108 | +6.0% | 71 | 67 | 70 |
Feb | -33.3% | 68 | 102 | 81 | +11.5% | 29 | 26 | 25 | -40.2% | 70 | 118 | 97 | +82.1% | 102 | 56 | 69 |
Mar | -2.0% | 97 | 99 | 77 | +0.0% | 36 | 36 | 45 | -2.0% | 81 | 82 | 51 | -29.8% | 40 | 57 | 52 |
Apr | -5.1% | 111 | 117 | 103 | +44.4% | 39 | 27 | 32 | -34.3% | 85 | 130 | 97 | -6.1% | 46 | 49 | 43 |
May | -15.8% | 112 | 133 | 98 | -7.3% | 38 | 41 | 58 | -9.1% | 88 | 97 | 51 | +7.9% | 41 | 38 | 40 |
Jun | +5.5% | 116 | 110 | 89 | +45.2% | 45 | 31 | 29 | -27.4% | 77 | 106 | 92 | +61.7% | 76 | 47 | 42 |
Jul | -13.8% | 94 | 109 | 86 | +37.9% | 40 | 29 | 23 | -37.5% | 70 | 113 | 112 | -35.2% | 68 | 105 | 46 |
Aug | -7.9% | 93 | 101 | 99 | +11.8% | 38 | 34 | 23 | -17.6% | 73 | 89 | 129 | -16.1% | 52 | 62 | 101 |
Sep | -14.5% | 94 | 110 | 105 | +10.3% | 32 | 29 | 36 | -22.6% | 88 | 114 | 88 | -40.5% | 50 | 84 | 44 |
Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | Median Price | Avg $/Sqft | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
Jan | -8.6% | $22.5M | $24.7M | +0.0% | 27 | 27 | -12.8% | $680K | $780K | -8.9% | $633 | $695 |
Feb | +20.4% | $31.3M | $26.0M | +51.7% | 44 | 29 | -16.6% | $730K | $875K | -11.6% | $608 | $688 |
Mar | -6.5% | $35.1M | $37.6M | +17.9% | 46 | 39 | -8.7% | $785K | $860K | -15.6% | $615 | $729 |
Apr | +5.7% | $50.7M | $48.0M | +5.4% | 59 | 56 | +4.1% | $760K | $730K | -2.5% | $650 | $667 |
May | +28.0% | $46.5M | $36.3M | +23.3% | 53 | 43 | +2.5% | $820K | $800K | +1.3% | $645 | $637 |
Jun | +12.5% | $49.3M | $43.9M | +22.9% | 59 | 48 | -20.1% | $719K | $900K | -4.3% | $690 | $721 |
Jul | +84.8% | $48.6M | $26.3M | +48.7% | 58 | 39 | +22.2% | $810K | $662K | +8.9% | $651 | $598 |
Aug | +47.6% | $50.2M | $34.0M | +41.0% | 55 | 39 | -7.4% | $755K | $815K | -3.2% | $645 | $666 |
Sep | +24.8% | $44.8M | $35.9M | +25.0% | 50 | 40 | +1.3% | $785K | $775K | +2.1% | $685 | $671 |
YTD | +21.3% | $379.1M | $312.6M | +25.3% | 451 | 360 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Below I will provide some further analysis putting current SF home prices into a clearer context and compare them to the trend in Marin. The absorption rate has slowed to 93%. The market isn’t slowing; we have just seen the most new listings come to market in 18 months. I can’t wait to see how October pans out. We are still in a multiple offer market, but instead of seeing 15 to 25 offers on a home, we are seeing 5 to 10. Also, if you look at the San Francisco tables below, Pending Days Inventory for September was 0.2% higher than it was last year. We are now seeing price discovery in SF and are at levels where more homeowners are willing to sell and inventory is starting to catch up to demand.
Mo | For Sale | Pending | Pending Days Inv | Avg DOM | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | |
Jan | -26.3% | 137 | 186 | 183 | -17.3% | 105 | 127 | 107 | -10.9% | 39 | 44 | 51 | -33.3% | 28 | 42 | 53 |
Feb | -33.5% | 139 | 209 | 223 | +1.2% | 170 | 168 | 165 | -34.3% | 25 | 37 | 41 | -13.0% | 20 | 23 | 32 |
Mar | -32.3% | 180 | 266 | 243 | +15.4% | 240 | 208 | 204 | -41.4% | 22 | 38 | 36 | -10.5% | 17 | 19 | 25 |
Apr | -32.0% | 204 | 300 | 280 | +20.2% | 274 | 228 | 225 | -43.4% | 22 | 39 | 37 | -28.6% | 15 | 21 | 22 |
May | -38.8% | 211 | 345 | 298 | +4.6% | 275 | 263 | 230 | -41.5% | 23 | 39 | 39 | -30.0% | 14 | 20 | 21 |
Jun | -55.3% | 127 | 284 | 269 | +9.9% | 223 | 203 | 206 | -59.3% | 17 | 42 | 39 | -5.3% | 18 | 19 | 28 |
Jul | -38.0% | 142 | 229 | 237 | -11.5% | 146 | 165 | 180 | -29.9% | 29 | 42 | 40 | -23.1% | 20 | 26 | 21 |
Aug | -27.3% | 141 | 194 | 221 | +5.0% | 169 | 161 | 154 | -30.8% | 25 | 36 | 43 | -25.8% | 23 | 31 | 30 |
Sep | -14.2% | 224 | 261 | 373 | -14.3% | 209 | 244 | 196 | +0.2% | 32 | 32 | 57 | -20.8% | 19 | 24 | 26 |
Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | Median Price | Avg $/Sqft | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
Jan | -35.1% | $168.1M | $259.0M | -39.7% | 76 | 126 | +15.0% | $1,636K | $1,422K | +8.8% | $1,056 | $971 |
Feb | +40.8% | $388.3M | $275.9M | +0.0% | 147 | 147 | +23.5% | $1,976K | $1,600K | +15.7% | $1,154 | $997 |
Mar | +18.4% | $590.4M | $498.5M | +1.5% | 202 | 199 | +17.7% | $2,140K | $1,818K | +13.2% | $1,244 | $1,099 |
Apr | +49.1% | $748.9M | $502.2M | +11.4% | 254 | 228 | +20.1% | $2,102K | $1,750K | +19.4% | $1,284 | $1,075 |
May | +38.6% | $769.1M | $554.8M | +19.1% | 268 | 225 | +20.8% | $2,175K | $1,800K | +14.3% | $1,261 | $1,103 |
Jun | +62.9% | $773.8M | $475.1M | +19.7% | 267 | 223 | +26.5% | $2,150K | $1,700K | +24.0% | $1,292 | $1,042 |
Jul | +8.1% | $449.4M | $415.7M | -10.1% | 178 | 198 | +23.8% | $2,028K | $1,637K | +20.6% | $1,220 | $1,012 |
Aug | +9.9% | $342.0M | $311.1M | -4.9% | 155 | 163 | +24.0% | $1,860K | $1,500K | +18.7% | $1,164 | $981 |
Sep | +34.2% | $539.7M | $402.2M | +4.9% | 191 | 182 | +17.1% | $2,050K | $1,750K | +23.4% | $1,312 | $1,063 |
YTD | +29.1% | $4769.7M | $3694.5M | +2.8% | 1,738 | 1,691 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Mo | For Sale | Pending | Pending Days Inv | Avg DOM | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | |
Jan | -30.4% | 328 | 471 | 463 | -23.9% | 121 | 159 | 132 | -8.5% | 81 | 89 | 105 | -4.8% | 79 | 83 | 76 |
Feb | -30.1% | 386 | 552 | 551 | +2.8% | 184 | 179 | 188 | -32.0% | 63 | 93 | 88 | -31.4% | 35 | 51 | 44 |
Mar | -28.4% | 452 | 631 | 594 | +23.2% | 250 | 203 | 225 | -41.8% | 54 | 93 | 79 | -36.6% | 26 | 41 | 44 |
Apr | -31.9% | 464 | 681 | 656 | +24.3% | 256 | 206 | 193 | -45.2% | 54 | 99 | 102 | -41.3% | 27 | 46 | 51 |
May | -31.0% | 468 | 678 | 697 | +18.8% | 259 | 218 | 199 | -41.9% | 54 | 93 | 105 | -27.3% | 32 | 44 | 46 |
Jun | -42.4% | 361 | 627 | 671 | +57.2% | 272 | 173 | 171 | -63.4% | 40 | 109 | 118 | -32.0% | 34 | 50 | 41 |
Jul | -37.3% | 333 | 531 | 616 | +11.5% | 184 | 165 | 159 | -43.8% | 54 | 97 | 116 | -32.2% | 40 | 59 | 51 |
Aug | -31.1% | 334 | 485 | 580 | +9.9% | 199 | 181 | 172 | -37.4% | 50 | 80 | 101 | -46.4% | 37 | 69 | 59 |
Sep | -27.3% | 418 | 575 | 789 | -15.3% | 233 | 275 | 161 | -14.2% | 54 | 63 | 147 | -23.3% | 33 | 43 | 52 |
Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | Median Price | Avg $/Sqft | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
Jan | -3.1% | $168.9M | $174.3M | -6.7% | 126 | 135 | +0.7% | $1,002K | $995K | -2.2% | $972 | $994 |
Feb | +9.5% | $274.5M | $250.7M | +2.7% | 192 | 187 | +8.9% | $1,225K | $1,125K | +9.3% | $1,090 | $997 |
Mar | +31.2% | $415.9M | $317.0M | +7.4% | 262 | 244 | +24.7% | $1,350K | $1,082K | +13.3% | $1,142 | $1,008 |
Apr | +28.6% | $455.5M | $354.2M | +22.9% | 279 | 227 | +17.5% | $1,375K | $1,170K | +8.6% | $1,160 | $1,068 |
May | +31.0% | $449.0M | $342.7M | +15.7% | 280 | 242 | +2.6% | $1,325K | $1,292K | +11.5% | $1,168 | $1,048 |
Jun | +54.6% | $483.7M | $312.9M | +34.3% | 325 | 242 | +4.3% | $1,225K | $1,174K | +15.7% | $1,150 | $994 |
Jul | +48.7% | $423.3M | $284.7M | +29.3% | 291 | 225 | +13.6% | $1,250K | $1,100K | +15.8% | $1,131 | $977 |
Aug | +40.8% | $347.2M | $246.6M | +16.3% | 228 | 196 | +19.4% | $1,218K | $1,020K | +13.7% | $1,121 | $986 |
Sep | +14.9% | $364.4M | $317.2M | -2.5% | 236 | 242 | +22.5% | $1,350K | $1,102K | +14.2% | $1,180 | $1,033 |
YTD | +30.1% | $3382.5M | $2600.4M | +14.4% | 2,219 | 1,940 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
The two charts below represent a linear regression analysis of single-family home prices in Marin and SF going back to 2015. I did this study to put the recent price surge in SF into perspective and look at the median annual growth of the market. The headlines will tell you about all the crazy overbidding because of the AI boom. Part of this is true, but I will make the argument that it is the smart money that has been aggressively buying real estate in the last 12 months. These charts will help explain why.
Over the last 10 years, the linear trend of real estate price growth in SF is 3.31%. 2026 has brought this up a little. The YTD median price of a single-family home in SF is 20.6% higher than in 2025. But, if you take a step back and look at the data on a longer timeline, current prices in SF are only 8.7% over the linear trend. I would make the argument that the buyers who started paying up in Oct 2025 saw value given that home prices in SF were still depressed after Covid. The median price of a single-family home in 2025 was 5.5% lower than the Covid high set in 2021. It doesn’t hurt that there were ~16 San Francisco-based IPOs since 2024 and that AI companies started throwing money around to attract talent last year. Not to mention that people are still coming in from all over the world to be at the epicenter of AI in SF.
Now, look at the chart for Marin. The current median price for a single-family home is 3.3% below the linear trend. For the same period, Marin homes saw an annual growth rate of 4.8%. I would argue here that the value proposition is in Marin. If you were looking to make a move selling a home in SF to buy in Marin, 10 years of data say you would have an edge in doing so, maximizing your current equity.
I expect inventory levels will increase in 2027 in SF at these price levels. The value line is being drawn, and sellers are being pulled into the market. In Marin, I expect to see an aggressive spring market from buyers who have value on their mind for single-family homes and condos.
Thank you for reading. If you have questions about what these numbers mean for your home or portfolio, I'm always happy to talk through the data. Reach out anytime.