Marin & San Francisco Real Estate March 2026
Yippie-Ki-Yay San Francisco
April 17, 2026
I hope you are enjoying the beautiful spring weather. This note is a little later than usual because I moved to Vanguard Properties, and the transition took a little longer than anticipated. Vanguard is a great broker with a community-oriented culture and has an amazing team to support me in serving my clients. Culture and community are very important to me.
Here is what we will cover:
- interest rate and mortgage markets
- inflation
- SF and Marin County inventory and housing prices
Interest Rate and Mortgage Market
As of April 13, 2026:
- 30-yr mortgage was 6.37%, 39 bps higher from February 27, and 22 bps higher YTD
- The 10-yr Treasury at 4.3%, 28 bps higher from February 27, and 12 bps higher YTD
- 10-yr inflation expectations are higher by 18 bps YTD
- Mortgage purchase applications are still 1.8% higher than at the same time last year
- The MOVE Index (interest rate volatility measure) is slightly lower at 72.15 despite a short-term spike in March
| Indicator | Apr 13, 2026 | Mar 31, 2026 | Dec 31, 2025 | Apr 13, 2025 | MTD Chg | YTD Chg | YoY Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Yr Fixed Mortgage | 6.37% | 6.38% | 6.15% | 6.62% | -0.01% | +0.22% | -0.25% |
| 15-Yr Fixed Mortgage | 5.74% | 5.75% | 5.44% | 5.82% | -0.01% | +0.30% | -0.08% |
| 10-Yr Treasury | 4.30% | 4.30% | 4.18% | 4.48% | +0.00% | +0.12% | -0.18% |
| 30-Yr Treasury | 4.90% | 4.88% | 4.84% | 4.85% | +0.02% | +0.06% | +0.05% |
| 10-Yr Breakeven Inflation | 2.38% | 2.30% | 2.25% | 2.20% | +0.08% | +0.13% | +0.18% |
| 10-Yr Real Yield (TIPS) | 1.92% | 2.00% | 1.93% | 2.28% | -0.08% | -0.01% | -0.36% |
| MOVE Index | 72.15 | 96.05 | 63.96 | 137.26 | -23.90% | +8.19% | -65.11% |
So yeah, interest rates are higher, but thankfully market volatility has mellowed since the war started. Let's look at the positive for the real estate market. Compared to a year ago, 30-yr Treasury and inflation rates are higher YoY, yet the 30-yr mortgage is actually 25 bps lower. And remember April 7, 2025 when the market was reacting to broad sweeping tariff shock? The MOVE Index was 137.26 then, compared to 72.15 now. At least the bond market isn't as volatile as last year, and buyers are still applying for mortgages at a greater rate than last year.
Inflation is the real bugger here. 10-yr inflation expectations are now higher by 18 bps to 2.38%. This has stalled any expectation of the Fed lowering short-term rates. Also, rising inflation — especially gas prices — means more expensive housing.
Marin County Numbers
Inventory in Marin is now slightly higher than last year, along with sales volume, transaction count and pending sales. Interestingly, the median sales price is lower, as is the price per sq/ft sold, and the actual sales volume and transaction count in March is lower than last year. The data tells us that buyers are active and a lot of older inventory is being purchased at prices below original list price. Higher closed and pending sales, combined with decreasing inventory and days on market, show new inventory is getting scooped up at a rapid pace — but buyers are selective. The big-ticket homes are not trading too actively yet this year.
Marin — YTD Summary (through March 2026)
| Metric | 2026 YTD | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Volume | $826.8M | +7.5% |
| Transactions | 453 | +8.9% |
| YTD Median Price | $1.4M | -1.5% |
| Avg Days on Market | 52.2 | +0.8% |
| Sale/List % | 100.0% | -0.9% |
Marin — Monthly Volume & Activity
| Mo | YoY | 2026 Vol | 2025 Vol | YoY | 2026 Txn | 2025 Txn | YoY | 2026 Med | 2025 Med | 2026 $/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | +11.6% | $173.0M | $155.1M | +7.3% | 103 | 96 | +6.5% | $1,325K | $1,244K | $790 |
| Feb | +39.1% | $307.4M | $221.1M | +34.7% | 167 | 124 | -5.2% | $1,400K | $1,478K | $839 |
| Mar | -11.9% | $346.4M | $393.2M | -6.6% | 183 | 196 | -7.0% | $1,500K | $1,612K | $894 |
| YTD | +7.5% | $826.8M | $769.3M | +8.9% | 453 | 416 | — | — | — | — |
Marin — Monthly Market Dynamics
| Mo | YoY | For Sale 2026 | 2025 | YoY | Closed 2026 | 2025 | YoY | Pending 2026 | 2025 | Sale/Orig% | Avg DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | +2.4% | 255 | 249 | +7.3% | 103 | 96 | +3.5% | 119 | 115 | 95.0% | 64 |
| Feb | -17.6% | 281 | 341 | +34.7% | 167 | 124 | +19.6% | 177 | 148 | 98.0% | 60 |
| Mar | +4.8% | 414 | 395 | -6.6% | 183 | 196 | +3.2% | 258 | 250 | 100.0% | 31 |
Highlights:
- Sales volume in March is -12% lower YoY and +7.5% higher YTD
- March transactions are -6.6% lower YoY and +9% higher YTD
- Pending transactions are 3.2% higher than last year
- Median sale price is 7% lower than last year
- Inventory is 4.8% higher than last year
San Francisco Numbers
The SF market, of course, is unique. The buying spree continues after a brief pause in January. As John McClane said, "Welcome to the party, pal." March sales volume, transaction count, median price, sales to original list price and pending sales are all higher than last year, although the city has 3% fewer transactions than same time last year. Inventory levels — 28% lower than last March — are helping make the SF market hotter than a Christmas party at Nakatomi Plaza. (The roof is on fire!)
SF — YTD Summary (through March 2026)
| Metric | 2026 YTD | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Volume | $2,008.0M | +13.1% |
| Transactions | 1,006 | -3.1% |
| YTD Median Price | $1.5M | +11.5% |
| Avg Days on Market | 34.8 | -17.1% |
| Sale/List % | 110.8% | +4.8% |
SF — Monthly Volume & Activity
| Mo | YoY | 2026 Vol | 2025 Vol | YoY | 2026 Txn | 2025 Txn | YoY | 2026 Med | 2025 Med | 2026 $/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -22.2% | $337.0M | $433.3M | -22.6% | 202 | 261 | +0.6% | $1,258K | $1,250K | $1,004 |
| Feb | +25.9% | $662.8M | $526.6M | +1.5% | 339 | 334 | +12.2% | $1,470K | $1,310K | $1,118 |
| Mar | +23.6% | $1,008.2M | $815.6M | +5.0% | 465 | 443 | +18.7% | $1,650K | $1,390K | $1,187 |
| YTD | +13.1% | $2,008.0M | $1,775.5M | -3.1% | 1,006 | 1,038 | — | — | — | — |
SF — Monthly Market Dynamics
| Mo | YoY | For Sale 2026 | 2025 | YoY | Closed 2026 | 2025 | YoY | Pending 2026 | 2025 | Sale/Orig% | Avg DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -28.7% | 531 | 745 | -22.6% | 202 | 261 | -17.8% | 259 | 315 | 103.0% | 58 |
| Feb | -30.6% | 601 | 866 | +1.5% | 339 | 334 | +5.2% | 404 | 384 | 108.0% | 29 |
| Mar | -28.1% | 723 | 1,005 | +5.0% | 465 | 443 | +17.1% | 528 | 451 | 112.0% | 23 |
Highlights:
- 2026 YTD Sales volume +13.1%, yet transactions down -3%
- Median sales prices went up 18.7% over March 2025
- Pending sales 17% higher than March 2025
- Sales to original list price ratio is 112%
- Average days on market in SF is 23 — the lowest March reading in 10 years
- The top 20% segment of the SF market rose 21.7% from $3,039,580 to $3,700,000 — in just the first 3 months of 2026
I am sure you have been hearing crazy stories about the SF market. It's not just new AI money. In 2026, early Yahoo, FB and Google people can be considered old money, and they want to live near their grandkids in the city. A home in Seacliff that was listed for $3.9M sold for $6.5M. Now, think about this for a minute. If inflation is pushing up building costs to $2,000–$3,000 per square foot for a luxury home, why wouldn't the homes with awesome views start trading at those prices? The same goes for homes in the mid-tier as well. We may be seeing a permanent market shift. I would love to hear your ideas, thoughts, and theories.
This is a busy market, and buyers are being aggressive. If you are thinking about buying in the next 2 to 3 months, let's get together and put together a plan to get you where you want to be. There are a lot of SF buyers in Marin, so we will see if the rising tide raises all ships in the bay. If you are thinking about selling, let's talk about a strategy to maximize your equity and help you move on to your next phase. Just give me a call. And please note my new email address: [email protected].
Until next time.
"Happy trails to you, until we meet again.
Happy trails to you, keep smilin' until then."
— Roy Rogers
Gene J Koziarz
Real Estate Agent & Advisor | Vanguard Properties
CA DRE# 02247872DRE