Macro Data

Today 8/12/26 the Consumer Price Index for July came in at 3.4%. The Federal Reserve is still saying the target rate for inflation is 2%. It’s time to “cut the crap,” as my dad would say (slightly censored). Our fiscal and foreign policy is inflationary, and nothing is being done to correct it (my opinion). Check out the recent record price set for copper. It’s called Doctor Copper because its price is considered to be a key indicator of economic health. At least the longer term 10 Yr Breakeven Inflation Rate is still below last year by 0.11%.

As of 8/7/26 the 10-Year Treasury was 4.65% and the 30 Yr Mortgage Rate was 6.69%. It is getting more expensive for borrowers to purchase a home right now. The Mortgage Purchase Index has been showing greater mortgage demand for 26 of 27 weeks this year until the 30 Yr Mortgage rate broke above 6.5% on 7/16/26. The rolling 4-week average of the Index is now lower than the same period last year, showing less demand than 2025.

Sales Growth in San Francisco and Marin County

Marin County

Marin County Sales Volume is 23% higher than last year with 16% more transactions. Inventory for single-family homes in July was 35% lower than last year, a continuing trend this year. Single-family home sellers are doing well in this market in Marin. Condos in Marin are gaining ground, but the median prices paid are still below the high prices seen during COVID. It is a buyer’s market for condos in Marin, and there are deals to be had!

San Francisco

In SF, inventory for both single-family homes and condos is ~38% lower than last year. For single-family homes YTD sales volume in dollars is 30% higher than last year, but total transactions are just 3.5% higher. Buyers took a break in July, as there were 10.5% fewer transactions than in July 2025. For condos, YTD sales volume in dollars is 31% higher than in 2025, and total transactions are 17% higher. Condo buyers did NOT take July off in SF.

Strategy

OpenAI just had a tender offer for $7 BN worth of shares from employees the other day. This liquidity event is going to pour more money into high-end SF and Marin County real estate. The good news is that there is inventory coming to market. There are also a lot of people waiting for Don Corleone to make them an offer they can’t refuse off-market. You just have to look for these opportunities. There’s no question it is going to be a competitive market for buyers this fall. Successful buyers will have a strategy in place, with backup plans. Also, just because there is a shortage of supply, take care to know what you are buying. I saw a few giant turds sell for prices that made me shake my head. There was one I had to steer a client away from. Insurers do not like to insure homes with knob-and-tube wiring. Period. That said, sellers in SF have the upper hand in this market. To maximize your equity, prep your home for sale and disclose, disclose, disclose.

I have the data and analytics to help you navigate this market. I will break it down to your local town/neighborhood and make it easy for you to understand. There is a mathematical approach to writing an offer that can win in this market. I can also provide analysis to market and price your property for sale, maximizing your time and equity. All I need to know is what your goals are.

I am available anytime to help talk through, plan and execute your next move. The buyers are out there!

Give me a call to discuss.

My job is to help people first and sell homes second.

Thank you for reading!

Gratefully,

Gene