Why do people move? People generally buy and sell real estate because of life events. Diamonds, diapers, divorce, displacement and death are known as the 5 D’s of real estate. Discretionary purchases and investment decisions drive sales too, but personal finances and lifestyle motivate when, where and how people move, regardless of historical cycles. People act to satisfy a need.
When quantifying the market using sales, inventory and price statistics, the human element can often be overlooked. The data below makes me wonder about the human factors driving the low inventory, high demand and prices in San Francisco. The city is hopping.
In this letter data is broken down by condo and single-family markets in addition to the total market. Yeah, it's a lot of data. Given the size of the condo market in SF, I think these data points are important to distinguish.
Life is getting more expensive, and the Labor Department confirmed it for you yesterday morning (5/12/2026) with the CPI. I have written in my last few letters that the least noisy indicator of inflation is the 10-Yr Breakeven Inflation Rate. It is now at 2.45%, .20% higher YTD. According to the CME FedWatch, there is now a 36.9% chance of a fed rate hike by the end of the year. A few days ago an interest rate increase by the Fed had only a 10% probability.
- 30-Yr Mortgage Average is now 6.37%, .22% higher YTD
- 10-Yr Treasury is .20% higher YTD
- Mortgage applications are 17% higher YoY
| Indicator | May 08, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | Dec 31, 2025 | May 08, 2025 | MTD Chg | YTD Chg | YoY Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage | 6.37% | 6.30% | 6.15% | 6.76% | +0.07% | +0.22% | -0.39% |
| 15-Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage | 5.72% | 5.64% | 5.44% | 5.89% | +0.08% | +0.28% | -0.17% |
| 10-Yr Treasury | 4.38% | 4.40% | 4.18% | 4.37% | -0.02% | +0.20% | +0.01% |
| 30-Yr Treasury | 4.95% | 4.98% | 4.84% | 4.83% | -0.03% | +0.11% | +0.12% |
| 10-Yr Breakeven Inflation | 2.45% | 2.46% | 2.25% | 2.29% | -0.01% | +0.20% | +0.16% |
| 10-Yr Real Yield (TIPS) | 1.93% | 1.94% | 1.93% | 2.08% | -0.01% | +0.00% | -0.15% |
| MOVE Index | 67.25 | 72.07 | 63.96 | 98.66 | -4.82% | +3.29% | -31.41% |
| Week Ending | Index | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 171.1 | +16.7% |
| 2026-04-29 | 177.7 | +15.8% |
| 2026-04-22 | 175.6 | +6.9% |
| 2026-04-15 | 159.5 | -7.6% |
In Marin we are starting to see SF families slowly spill over the bridge. Demand continues to outpace supply and prices are rising, but not nearly the pace of the SF market. Single-family homes are trading 103.6% of original list price, which is in line. 56% of April sales were over list price, and 28% were below list price.
The top 60% of the market is seeing prices increase, where homes priced under $1.25MM are remaining fairly stable. We are seeing a lot of multiple (5 and more) offers on modern, updated single family homes. Large, all cash, sometimes over the top offers are taking the prize home.
I point out the Pending Days Inventory stat below because it measures the velocity of the market. It's a ratio of inventory to pending sales multiplied by 30. The lower it is, the greater the velocity of buyers, which is good for sellers.
- April Inventory is 16.4% lower YoY
- April Transactions are 12% higher YoY
- YTD Transactions are 27% higher than last year
- April Sales Volume is 25% higher than YoY
- Median Price of a single-family home is 4.7% higher than last year @ $1,910,000
- Pending Days Inventory (inventory/pending sales*30days) is 40 vs 57 last year
| Mo | For Sale | Closed | Pending | Avg DOM | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | |
| Jan | +2.4% | 255 | 249 | 201 | +7.3% | 103 | 96 | 98 | +3.5% | 119 | 115 | 99 | -13.5% | 64 | 74 | 65 |
| Feb | -17.6% | 281 | 341 | 248 | +36.3% | 169 | 124 | 106 | +23.0% | 182 | 148 | 122 | +27.1% | 61 | 48 | 56 |
| Mar | +4.8% | 414 | 395 | 301 | -4.6% | 187 | 196 | 159 | +9.2% | 273 | 250 | 220 | -11.4% | 31 | 35 | 34 |
| Apr | -16.4% | 470 | 562 | 405 | +11.9% | 283 | 253 | 220 | +13.0% | 287 | 254 | 231 | -9.7% | 28 | 31 | 29 |
| May | — | — | 639 | 481 | — | — | 264 | 275 | — | — | 273 | 278 | — | — | 26 | 30 |
| Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | Median Price | Avg $/Sqft | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | +11.6% | $173.0M | $155.1M | +7.3% | 103 | 96 | +6.5% | $1,325K | $1,244K | +3.0% | $790 | $767 |
| Feb | +39.1% | $307.4M | $221.1M | +34.7% | 167 | 124 | -5.2% | $1,400K | $1,478K | -2.7% | $839 | $862 |
| Mar | -9.7% | $355.2M | $393.2M | -4.6% | 187 | 196 | -7.0% | $1,500K | $1,612K | -1.8% | $892 | $908 |
| Apr | +25.2% | $639.7M | $510.9M | +11.9% | 283 | 253 | +2.8% | $1,625K | $1,580K | +7.1% | $978 | $913 |
| May | — | — | $583.7M | — | — | 264 | — | — | $1,708K | — | $— | $952 |
| Mo | Sale / Orig % | % Over List | % Under List | Pending Days Inv | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | -2.5% | 93.1% | 95.5% | -26.4% | 18.4% | 25.0% | +12.9% | 61.2% | 54.2% | -1.0% | 64 | 65 |
| Feb | -1.3% | 97.9% | 99.2% | -10.6% | 40.4% | 45.2% | +5.3% | 41.6% | 39.5% | -33.0% | 46 | 69 |
| Mar | +0.0% | 100.8% | 100.8% | -4.3% | 44.9% | 46.9% | -8.5% | 36.4% | 39.8% | -4.0% | 45 | 47 |
| Apr | -2.0% | 102.8% | 104.9% | +4.2% | 51.9% | 49.8% | -14.7% | 31.4% | 36.8% | -26.0% | 49 | 66 |
| May | — | — | 101.1% | — | — | 47.0% | — | — | 38.3% | — | — | 70 |
| Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | Median Price | Avg $/Sqft | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | +15.8% | $150.2M | $129.7M | +10.1% | 76 | 69 | +17.2% | $1,700K | $1,450K | +7.7% | $869 | $807 |
| Feb | +41.1% | $274.6M | $194.6M | +29.5% | 123 | 95 | -3.0% | $1,649K | $1,700K | +1.3% | $937 | $925 |
| Mar | -10.1% | $319.3M | $355.3M | -10.2% | 141 | 157 | -1.7% | $1,750K | $1,780K | +3.5% | $988 | $955 |
| Apr | +27.4% | $588.6M | $461.9M | +14.2% | 225 | 197 | +4.7% | $1,910K | $1,825K | +7.5% | $1,064 | $990 |
| May | — | — | $545.7M | — | — | 220 | — | — | $1,952K | — | $— | $1,018 |
| Mo | Sale / Orig % | % Over List | % Under List | Pending Days Inv | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | -1.0% | 93.7% | 94.6% | -14.2% | 21.1% | 24.6% | +13.4% | 59.2% | 52.2% | +21.2% | 59 | 48 |
| Feb | -0.7% | 99.3% | 100.0% | -0.9% | 45.9% | 46.3% | -2.2% | 40.2% | 41.1% | -29.0% | 40 | 57 |
| Mar | -0.1% | 101.2% | 101.3% | +1.0% | 48.9% | 48.4% | -3.8% | 35.5% | 36.9% | -7.1% | 38 | 41 |
| Apr | -3.1% | 103.6% | 106.9% | +1.1% | 56.4% | 55.8% | -17.7% | 28.4% | 34.5% | -30.0% | 40 | 57 |
| May | — | — | 101.8% | — | — | 51.4% | — | — | 35.0% | — | — | 65 |
| Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | Median Price | Avg $/Sqft | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | -10.2% | $22.8M | $25.4M | +0.0% | 27 | 27 | -9.0% | $655K | $720K | -13.7% | $573 | $664 |
| Feb | +23.8% | $32.8M | $26.5M | +51.7% | 44 | 29 | -20.8% | $678K | $855K | -13.0% | $569 | $654 |
| Mar | -5.2% | $35.9M | $37.9M | +17.9% | 46 | 39 | -12.3% | $750K | $855K | -16.6% | $599 | $718 |
| Apr | +4.1% | $51.0M | $49.0M | +3.6% | 58 | 56 | +5.0% | $758K | $722K | -0.3% | $644 | $646 |
| May | — | — | $37.1M | — | — | 43 | — | — | $785K | — | $— | $623 |
| Mo | Sale / Orig % | % Over List | % Under List | Pending Days Inv | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | -6.3% | 91.6% | 97.8% | -57.1% | 11.1% | 25.9% | +12.5% | 66.7% | 59.3% | -44.2% | 74 | 132 |
| Feb | -2.2% | 94.3% | 96.4% | -39.6% | 25.0% | 41.4% | +31.9% | 45.5% | 34.5% | -40.2% | 70 | 118 |
| Mar | +0.7% | 99.6% | 98.9% | -20.5% | 32.6% | 41.0% | -23.8% | 39.1% | 51.3% | -4.7% | 79 | 82 |
| Apr | +1.8% | 99.7% | 97.9% | +20.6% | 34.5% | 28.6% | -3.4% | 43.1% | 44.6% | -34.3% | 85 | 130 |
| May | — | — | 97.6% | — | — | 23.3% | — | — | 55.8% | — | — | 97 |
| Segment | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 — Entry | $495K | $527K | $545K | $615K | $610K | $659K | $675K | $705K | $650K | $663K | $690K | $647K |
| Q2 — Lower-Mid | $736K | $780K | $815K | $890K | $875K | $980K | $1060K | $1188K | $1050K | $1090K | $1090K | $1082K |
| Q3 — Mid | $949K | $1000K | $1090K | $1181K | $1185K | $1320K | $1430K | $1555K | $1430K | $1495K | $1450K | $1525K |
| Q4 — Upper-Mid | $1310K | $1375K | $1495K | $1600K | $1556K | $1770K | $1945K | $2138K | $1972K | $2044K | $2000K | $2189K |
| Q5 — Luxury | $2350K | $2400K | $2561K | $2601K | $2600K | $3100K | $3400K | $3600K | $3400K | $3380K | $3545K | $3730K |
I am starting to sound like a broken record (does anyone say that anymore?) by stating inventory is low and demand is high in San Francisco. But, it is, and extremely so. Big cash transactions rule the day in the large single-family home, condo and multi-family properties. We are seeing homes trading at $3000+ per square foot.
In April, entry level homes and condos under $1MM have also gotten more competitive than earlier in the year. The rising tide has lifted all the ships in the City by the Bay. But check out the luxury end of the SF market. YTD median prices are 26% higher than last year!!
- April Inventory is 30% lower YoY
- April Transactions are 16% higher YoY
- YTD Transactions are 2.75% higher than last year
- April Sales Volume is 38.6% higher than YoY
- Median Price of a single-family home is 21% higher than last year @ $2,115,000
- Pending Days Inventory (inventory/pending sales*30days) is 23 vs 39 last year.
| Mo | For Sale | Closed | Pending | Avg DOM | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | |
| Jan | -28.7% | 531 | 745 | 720 | -22.6% | 202 | 261 | 213 | -17.8% | 259 | 315 | 268 | -7.9% | 58 | 63 | 68 |
| Feb | -30.6% | 601 | 866 | 875 | +1.5% | 339 | 334 | 328 | +3.4% | 397 | 384 | 385 | -23.7% | 29 | 38 | 40 |
| Mar | -28.1% | 723 | 1,005 | 948 | +5.2% | 466 | 443 | 366 | +17.1% | 528 | 451 | 470 | -25.8% | 23 | 31 | 36 |
| Apr | -30.6% | 767 | 1,105 | 1,076 | +15.8% | 527 | 455 | 489 | +21.7% | 571 | 469 | 460 | -35.3% | 22 | 34 | 38 |
| May | — | — | 1,166 | 1,131 | — | — | 467 | 497 | — | — | 520 | 462 | — | — | 32 | 34 |
| Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | Median Price | Avg $/Sqft | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | -22.2% | $337.0M | $433.3M | -22.6% | 202 | 261 | +0.6% | $1,258K | $1,250K | +2.1% | $1,004 | $983 |
| Feb | +25.9% | $662.8M | $526.6M | +1.5% | 339 | 334 | +12.2% | $1,470K | $1,310K | +12.1% | $1,118 | $997 |
| Mar | +23.8% | $1009.3M | $815.6M | +5.2% | 466 | 443 | +18.2% | $1,642K | $1,390K | +13.1% | $1,186 | $1,049 |
| Apr | +38.6% | $1187.1M | $856.4M | +15.8% | 527 | 455 | +15.8% | $1,650K | $1,425K | +13.6% | $1,217 | $1,071 |
| May | — | — | $897.6M | — | — | 467 | — | — | $1,500K | — | $— | $1,075 |
| Mo | Sale / Orig % | % Over List | % Under List | Pending Days Inv | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | +1.4% | 104.3% | 102.9% | +22.3% | 45.5% | 37.2% | -22.9% | 37.1% | 48.1% | -13.3% | 62 | 71 |
| Feb | +3.6% | 109.4% | 105.6% | +11.5% | 63.2% | 56.7% | -14.6% | 27.6% | 32.3% | -32.9% | 45 | 68 |
| Mar | +6.4% | 113.2% | 106.4% | +23.5% | 71.5% | 57.9% | -43.2% | 17.2% | 30.3% | -38.5% | 41 | 67 |
| Apr | +8.2% | 115.7% | 106.9% | +23.9% | 71.0% | 57.3% | -38.6% | 17.2% | 28.0% | -43.0% | 40 | 71 |
| May | — | — | 108.3% | — | — | 61.4% | — | — | 26.2% | — | — | 67 |
| Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | Median Price | Avg $/Sqft | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | -35.1% | $168.1M | $259.0M | -39.7% | 76 | 126 | +15.0% | $1,636K | $1,422K | +8.8% | $1,056 | $971 |
| Feb | +40.8% | $388.3M | $275.9M | +0.0% | 147 | 147 | +23.5% | $1,976K | $1,600K | +15.7% | $1,154 | $997 |
| Mar | +18.4% | $590.4M | $498.5M | +1.5% | 202 | 199 | +17.7% | $2,140K | $1,818K | +13.2% | $1,244 | $1,099 |
| Apr | +46.8% | $737.0M | $502.2M | +9.6% | 250 | 228 | +20.9% | $2,115K | $1,750K | +19.2% | $1,281 | $1,075 |
| May | — | — | $554.8M | — | — | 225 | — | — | $1,800K | — | $— | $1,103 |
| Mo | Sale / Orig % | % Over List | % Under List | Pending Days Inv | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | +4.4% | 114.7% | 109.9% | +26.9% | 73.7% | 58.1% | -52.6% | 14.5% | 30.6% | -10.9% | 39 | 44 |
| Feb | +3.2% | 116.2% | 112.6% | -1.5% | 76.9% | 78.1% | +12.6% | 17.0% | 15.1% | -34.3% | 25 | 37 |
| Mar | +7.9% | 122.8% | 113.8% | +11.2% | 86.4% | 77.7% | -54.8% | 7.1% | 15.7% | -41.4% | 22 | 38 |
| Apr | +9.4% | 124.5% | 113.8% | +9.3% | 85.5% | 78.2% | -35.2% | 9.2% | 14.2% | -42.1% | 23 | 39 |
| May | — | — | 116.3% | — | — | 79.6% | — | — | 14.7% | — | — | 39 |
| Mo | Sales Volume ($) | Transactions | Median Price | Avg $/Sqft | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | -3.1% | $168.9M | $174.3M | -6.7% | 126 | 135 | +0.7% | $1,002K | $995K | -2.2% | $972 | $994 |
| Feb | +9.5% | $274.5M | $250.7M | +2.7% | 192 | 187 | +8.9% | $1,225K | $1,125K | +9.3% | $1,090 | $997 |
| Mar | +31.2% | $415.9M | $317.0M | +7.4% | 262 | 244 | +24.7% | $1,350K | $1,082K | +13.3% | $1,142 | $1,008 |
| Apr | +26.8% | $449.1M | $354.2M | +21.6% | 276 | 227 | +15.4% | $1,350K | $1,170K | +8.4% | $1,158 | $1,068 |
| May | — | — | $342.7M | — | — | 242 | — | — | $1,292K | — | $— | $1,048 |
| Mo | Sale / Orig % | % Over List | % Under List | Pending Days Inv | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | YoY | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Jan | +1.7% | 98.0% | 96.4% | +59.8% | 28.6% | 17.9% | -20.9% | 50.8% | 64.2% | -8.5% | 81 | 89 |
| Feb | +4.2% | 104.1% | 99.9% | +32.8% | 52.6% | 39.6% | -22.5% | 35.8% | 46.2% | -32.0% | 63 | 93 |
| Mar | +5.7% | 106.0% | 100.3% | +44.8% | 60.4% | 41.7% | -41.6% | 24.6% | 42.1% | -42.3% | 54 | 93 |
| Apr | +7.8% | 107.8% | 100.0% | +58.8% | 57.8% | 36.4% | -41.6% | 24.4% | 41.8% | -44.7% | 55 | 99 |
| May | — | — | 100.7% | — | — | 44.4% | — | — | 36.9% | — | — | 93 |
| Segment | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 — Entry | $680K | $690K | $735K | $770K | $800K | $800K | $775K | $750K | $680K | $705K | $690K | $705K |
| Q2 — Lower-Mid | $900K | $925K | $975K | $1055K | $1100K | $1115K | $1122K | $1110K | $1015K | $1050K | $1050K | $1180K |
| Q3 — Mid | $1150K | $1200K | $1250K | $1350K | $1380K | $1400K | $1440K | $1445K | $1314K | $1375K | $1396K | $1571K |
| Q4 — Upper-Mid | $1475K | $1475K | $1578K | $1695K | $1725K | $1750K | $1825K | $1850K | $1686K | $1775K | $1835K | $2150K |
| Q5 — Luxury | $2300K | $2315K | $2465K | $2520K | $2680K | $2725K | $2999K | $2950K | $2750K | $2925K | $3040K | $3839K |
Inflation continues to rise, as does the demand for real estate in the Bay Area.
On 4/30/2026, 212 Spruce St in San Francisco sold for $8,200,000, 205% of its $3,995,000 list price. How do you like them apples?
“Whatever abilities you have can’t be taken away from you. They can’t be inflated away from you. The best investment by far is anything that develops yourself, and it’s not taxed at all.” -Warren Buffett
About real estate during times of inflation:
“They’re the businesses that you buy once and then you don’t have to keep making capital investments subsequently. So, you do not face the problem of continuous reinvestments involving greater and greater dollars because of inflation.” Warren Buffett; 2015 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting.
This is not investment advice. These are just quotes from Warren Buffett. Who knows if he still feels the same. I’m just saying we are in an inflationary environment and the data shows home prices are rising in the Bay Area, especially so in San Francisco.
If you are interested in buying or selling, interview me to work for you. You will be happy you did!
Gratefully,
Gene
Thank you for reading. If you have questions about what these numbers mean for your home or portfolio, I'm always happy to talk through the data. Reach out anytime.