Let's look at the national market first. A pair of articles from Realtor.com (Links at the end) show a very cautious, almost fragile optimism for the summer real estate market nationally. “Homes are selling at the same pace as a year ago… signaling that buyer demand is holding steady despite an uncertain economic backdrop.” They cite:

• Inventory growth of 1.8% YoY
• Days on market and absorption rates are on par with last year
• Median list prices are 2.3% lower than last year
• Pending sales are up 4.3% YoY

Read article 1 here.

Read article 2 here.

Nationally, sellers are lowering their prices, creating a more friendly environment to attract buyers intimidated by inflation, interest rates and geopolitical volatility. But here’s an interesting statistic: Through the end of May, Mortgage Purchase Applications have been higher than last year 20 of the 22 weeks in 2026. The buyers are out there; they just seem more price sensitive, nationally.

The San Francisco and Marin markets do NOT reflect national trends. There is no cautious optimism, but instead a feeding frenzy. Here's a an example of how hot the rental market is in San Francisco: There was a recent 2 bed 1 bath apartment for rent @ $6000 per month. Nothing fancy at all, right by SFSU. They received ~150 applications and there was a 1-hour line for the first open house (I saw the video). There's a new gold rush in the Bay Area, and it's name is AI. Renters are offering and paying $200 to $500 over asking rent, and this is affecting inventory for sale and shows the demand for housing in SF. Check out the stats for the SF market below.

For the week ending 6/5/26, the 30-Year mortgage average was 6.48%, .05% lower than last week’s reading below. So, we have that going for us. Inflation has stopped rising, and bond market volatility has settled. Let’s hope that the geopolitical volatility also cools off the rest of the year. I would love to see interest rates, and gas prices, and steak prices all come down a little. The Fed isn't likely to do anything with interest rates until after the elections. Hopefully by then crude oil and mortgage rates will be closer to where they were in March.

• 30-Yr Mortgage Average at 6.48% is .32% higher YTD, but still .36% lower YoY
• 10-Yr Treasury is .37% higher YTD and .15% higher YoY
• Mortgage applications are 1.7% higher YoY
• Inflation expectations have cooled MTD by .02%, but are still .11% higher YDT and .07% higher YoY
• Interest rate market volatility is 20% lower than last year, but 11% higher YTD

The spring market in Marin was strong, and continued through May. There are multiple offers on single family homes in Marin, especially on updated homes well prepared for market. Some of these homes are seeing offers 10% to 40% over asking price. We are talking about high end finishes, great location and modern. Buyers are still being particular in Marin. One home not far from mine is noteworthy. 22 Filbert Ave in Sausalito sold for $3.5 MM, 140% of its original list price.

Regarding condos; it is a buyers market for condos in Marin compared to SF. There is plenty of inventory, and if you are feeling priced out of the city, there is a home for you in Marin.

• May Inventory is 22% lower YoY
• May Transactions are 9% higher YoY
• May Sales Volume is 16% higher than YoY
• Median Price of a single-family home in May was 4.7% lower YoY
• Median Price of a condo in May was 4.5% higher YoY
• May Pending Days Inventory for single family home is 41 vs 65 last year

Then there is San Francisco. Same pattern here, but on a much grander scale. Supply is low, demand is high and prices are going up, but not equally across all price levels. See the Median Price by Market segment chart and table below. The median price for entry level homes (condo and single family) YTD are 5.7% higher than 2025 where the mid market is 14.6% higher and the luxury homes are 30% higher!!!

• May SF total inventory is 33% lower YoY
• May SF total transactions are 13% higher YoY
• May SF total sales volume is 32% higher than YoY
• May median price of a single family home is 22% higher than last year @ $2,200,000
• May median price of a condo is 3% higher than last year @ $1,328,000 (condo sales cooled off in May)

And Now for Something Completely Different

To quantify supply and demand shifts, I track a statistic to measure the velocity of the market, Pending Days of Inventory. I convert months of inventory statistic into days using pending sales, but I multiply that number by 30. I use pending transactions because the data reflects current market activity where sold transactions are 23 to 30 days older.

(Pending Transactions / Home for Sale) *30 = Pending Days of Inventory

What is this measuring? It tells you with the current number of homes for sale, how many days it would take to deplete that supply if no new homes came to market. Looking at the single family home market in San Francisco, May shows 22.6 days of inventory. In April it was 22.3, and that is the lowest reading of this statistic going back 21 years.

Context: For seasonality, I calculated the 21-year average for each month from 2005 to 2025 to compare the 2026 numbers. So far in 2026, Pending Days of Inventory is less than 50% of the 21-year average each month.

Here is the range of the data going back to 2005:

Min: 22.3

Max: 190.3

Median: 60.8

Average: 68.2

Pending Days of Inventory has been below 30 for 7 of the last 8 months. this year is has been below 25 for the last 4 months in a row. Prior to September 2025, this statistic has only been under 30 three times in the last 21 years, and never in consecutive months.

We are witnessing a dramatic shift in the real estate market, in human behavior, in technology and the capital markets. It is going to get very difficult to find market equilibrium for a while. People are flocking to the Bay Area like it’s 1849!

Buying and selling homes in San Francisco right now reminds me of what it was like trading options on the trading floor in Chicago in the late 1990s. It's wildly competitive, you never know what kind of crazy trade you will see day to day, and you really need to manage your risk tightly. For buyers, I have a process that will help you operate within a plan to meet your goals. Sometimes it takes more than one offer to get your dream home, and if the market says so, the plan will shift, but we will get you into your next home. Sellers, it is easy to market your home at a lofty, aspirational, let's see what happens price. That's not a plan that will make the market work for you. It will alienate you from a large pool of buyers and possibly make you chase the market lower if things turn quickly. There is one thing consistent about the real estate market, it is always changing. Know your market and know your place in it. I can help you with a plan to maximize your equity and help manage your risk in today’s market. I'll add that having a positive attitude and a cool head will prove to be assets and give you an edge! Always look on the bright side of life!

Give me a call and we can discuss your goals and make a plan to achieve them.

“Kilimanjaro is a pretty tricky climb you know, most of its up until you reach the very top, and then it tends to slope away rather sharply.”

― Monty Python

If you are interested in buying or selling, interview me to work for you. You will be happy you did!

Gratefully,

Gene