March San Francisco & Marin County Real Estate Market Update

Statistics and Fed Watch

3/5/2026

Whelp, a month ago, there was a 75% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in June.  Presently, if you look at the CME FedWatch Tool that has changed to just a 35% chance.  What a difference war makes. Seriously, I just cannot believe this is where we are… As of today’s market close (3/5/26), Crude Oil Futures are trading at 78.87, 20% above their 1/30/26 closing price of 65.74, and the 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 4.138%, up 4.8% since Friday before the bombing in Iran…  I much prefer peace, and less volatility…

We will see how this affects the real estate market in the coming months.  The February data shows buyers are active and signs of a strong market. The Bond market is a wise collection of investors, and so far, is not showing signs of too much volatility.

·       30 Year Mortgage average broke below 6%

·       10 Year inflation expectations are unchanged at 2.25%

·       The yield on the 10 Year Treasury is still below 4.18%

·       Year over year Mortgage Purchase Applications have grown 4%

·       The MOVE Index is higher, but not showing signs of panic in the bond market

Mortgage and Interest Rate Data

Marin County Numbers

The market in Marin is flush full of buyers, and Inventory is trying to keep up with demand.  We see a lot of properties going into contract within 10 days of going on the market, and a handful of luxury properties in Belvedere selling quickly off market.

·       February Sales were 31% better than February 2025

·       YTD Sales are 23% greater than in the same period in 2025

·       2026 transaction count is 18% higher than in the same period in 2025

·       Inventory is 18% below last year’s levels in February

·       Pending transactions are signaling for a strong March

San Francisco Numbers

The San Francisco market is still a little sleepy after all the action it saw at the ends of last year, but the buyers have come back out in February after their January nap. Market prices are rising in an environment where low inventory is met by aggressive buyers with cash.

·       Current inventory in SF is 70% of what it was February of last year

·       YTD sales are 1.8% over last year, but….

·       YTD transactions are 11% less than last year this time

·       Homes in February transacted at 109% of their list price 

In our sales meetings, agents say open house traffic is busier than the mint julip line at the Kentucky Derby. I am currently shopping for a few clients and am advising my buyers to be ready to move if they see something they want. For buyers, this is a market where it pays to be prepared and have a thought-out strategy. There are a lot of serious buyers in the market right now, and they are taking action.  Sellers in Marin and SF are getting great prices in this market right now. Homes that have been on the market since last year are also getting snapped up, but those are selling at prices lower than originally listed.

Give me a call if you want to share your ideas or discuss strategy for your next move.

Gratefully,

Gene

Gene J Koziarz

Real Estate Agent & Advisor

Vanguard Properties DRE 02247872 

M: 415.599.9209

[email protected]

genekoziarz.com

Imagine there's no country

It isn't hard to do

Nothing to kill or die for

And no religion too

Imagine all the people

Living life in peace, you (hooo)

You may say I'm a dreamer

-John Lennon